Lang Aftermarket iReport: Aftermarket vehicle changes in 2021
“Cars and light trucks of different age groups do not contribute equally to aftermarket product and service volume in the U.S. Light vehicles 4 years and older average only approximately 80% of the total light vehicles in operation (VIO), but they generate almost all light vehicle aftermarket product and service annual sales (not including Accessories and Tires).
“COVID-19, by reducing 2020 vehicle sales and scrappage, will change the mix of vehicles on U.S. roads in 2021. In order to understand how the 2021 aftermarket will be affected, it is necessary to focus on what Lang Marketing defines as aftermarket vehicles: cars and light trucks 4 years of age and older.”
— Jim Lang, publisher, Lang Aftermarket iReport
Not All Vehicle Age Groups Contribute Equally to Aftermarket Sales
Aftermarket vehicles (cars and light trucks 4 years and older) generate over 96% of total light vehicle aftermarket product and service volume (not including Accessories and Tires). However, they represent a much smaller share of the total light vehicles in operation.
Aftermarket vehicles are significantly different from other light vehicles in operation (VIO). The differences cover a wide range of light vehicle metrics including average age, mileage, nameplate mix, and leased versus owned, among other factors.
As Covid-19 reduces new vehicle sales and scrappage during 2020, it also will alter the mix of aftermarket vehicles on U.S. roads during 2021.
Aftermarket Vehicle Differentiation
Aftermarket vehicles are different from the overall light vehicle population, just as the aftermarket is different from the OE market.
Defining the metrics of aftermarket vehicles and exploring their impact on aftermarket product and service sales will enable people both inside and outside the automotive industry to understand more fully the dynamics of aftermarket growth in the U.S.
Examples of Major Differences
Aftermarket cars and light trucks differ significantly from younger light vehicles in a number of key aspects. Here are two examples.
Foreign nameplates currently account for 55% of cars and light trucks under 4 years old during the past five years, but they represent less than 44% of aftermarket vehicles.
Miles driven is another example of how aftermarket vehicles (4 years of age and older) differ from newer cars and light trucks. Vehicles under 4 years average approximately 75% more annual miles per vehicle than older cars and light trucks (aftermarket vehicles).
Nevertheless, aftermarket vehicles generate significantly more aftermarket product and service volume per mile traveled than newer cars and light trucks.
Changes in 2021 Aftermarket Vehicles Compared to 2016
The aftermarket vehicle population will be considerably different in 2021 compared to 2016. For example, there will be approximately17 million more aftermarket vehicles (4 years of age and older) in 2021 than there were five years earlier.
Aftermarket vehicles will also account for a larger share of the total VIO in 2021 than they did in 2015.
Foreign nameplates will represent a larger share of aftermarket vehicles in 2021 than in previous years. During 2016, foreign nameplates accounted for 42% of aftermarket vehicles, with their share rising to over 44% by 2021.
Mileage on U.S. roads generated by aftermarket vehicles will be greater as a share of total miles during 2021 than five years earlier.
Finally, the average age of aftermarket vehicles will be higher in 2021 than during 2016. Aftermarket vehicle age averaged 12.5 years in 2016, climbing to an estimated 13.3 years by 2021.
Aftermarket Sales Impact
As a result of these and other changes in the population of aftermarket vehicles on U.S. roads during 2021, they will account for a larger share of 2021 aftermarket product and service volume (not including Accessories and Tires) than five years earlier.
Six Major Takeaways
- Not all vehicle age groups contribute equally to aftermarket product and service volume.
- Aftermarket vehicles (4 years of age and older) average approximately 80% of the total VIO, but they generate over 96% of aftermarket product and service volume (not including Accessories and Tires).
- Aftermarket vehicles differ in a number of important ways from the total car and light truck VIO: average age, domestic and foreign nameplate mix, ratio of cars and light trucks, miles driven, leased versus owned vehicles as well as other key factors.
- Aftermarket vehicles should be distinguished from the overall light vehicle population, just as the aftermarket is differentiated from the OE market.
- The aftermarket vehicle population during 2021 will be significantly different from what is was five years earlier in 2016, especially in terms of VIO count, average age and foreign versus domestic nameplate mix.
- The changed aftermarket vehicle population during 2021 will help to boost aftermarket product and service volume and aid in the recovery of total aftermarket sales next year.
Copyright 2020 by Lang Marketing Resources, Inc.
NOTE: Special thanks to publisher Jim Lang for granting us permission to publish the Lang Aftermarket iReport.