Lang Aftermarket iReport: Fewer ‘domestic nameplates’ on the road
“Despite a surge of more than 22 million in the total light vehicle population across the U.S. between 2018 and 2022, over 3 million domestic nameplates will disappear from the vehicle count. This will significantly reduce the domestic nameplate share of vehicles in operation (VIO).
“The loss of domestic nameplates will not be distributed evenly between cars and light trucks. The domestic nameplate light truck VIO will increase nearly 4 million from 2018 to 2022, but this gain will be offset by Lang Marketing’s estimate of a 7 million plunge in domestic nameplate cars. This will have a negative impact on domestic nameplate aftermarket product use and boost the aftermarket product share of foreign nameplates.”
— Jim Lang, publisher, Lang Aftermarket iReport
More Light Vehicles on the Road
Lang Marketing estimates that the car and light truck population on U.S. roads will grow more than 22 million during the next four years (2018 to 2022) as the total light vehicle VIO (vehicles in operation) climbs from 279 million nearly 302 million.
Fewer Domestic Nameplate Cars
While the total number of vehicles in the U.S. will grow approximately 22 million between 2018 and 2022, the domestic nameplate population will fall.
Lang Marketing’s VIO projections are based on the growing share of domestic car scrappage and the steady decline of domestic nameplate new car sales from 2018 to 2022. This latter development will be accelerated by the Big Three’s discontinuing most of their car models in the U.S. market over the next four years.
More Domestic Nameplate Light Trucks
Domestic nameplate new light truck sales will remain strong between 2018 and 2022. Despite rising domestic light truck scrappage, Lang Marketing projects a 4 million increase in domestic nameplate light trucks during this time.
Nevertheless, the domestic light truck population gain will be offset by the plunging domestic nameplate car count.
Diminishing Domestic Light Vehicle Share
Domestic nameplate light vehicles will fall in VIO share between 2018 and 2022 (at mid-year).
Domestic nameplate VIO share will shrink from 53% of all cars and light trucks at mid-year 2018 to an estimated 48% of the light vehicle population on U.S. roads by mid-year 2022.
Domestic Nameplate Car and Light Truck VIO Share
Light trucks will comprise a growing share of domestic nameplates over the next four years, climbing from 69% in 2018 to an estimated 73% by 2022, as the domestic nameplate share held by cars falls by more than one-tenth.
While domestic light truck of the total VIO will remain relatively steady, slipping from 36% to 35% between 2018 and 2022, the domestic nameplate car share of all light vehicles will drop from 16% to an estimated 13%.
More Foreign Nameplates
As the domestic nameplate population declines in share and number, foreign nameplates will gain population and share strength.
Lang Marketing projects that foreign nameplates will comprise 52% of all cars and light trucks on U.S. roads by mid-year 2022, up from 47% during 2018.
Big Aftermarket Impact
This dramatic swing in the mix of domestic and foreign nameplates has significant implications for aftermarket product use.
The rapidly changing mix of light vehicles will boost foreign nameplate aftermarket product strength, and they will generate all U.S. light vehicle product growth between 2018 and 2022.
Six Major Takeaways
- Despite the total car and light truck population in the U.S. increasing approximately 22 million between 2018 and 2022, the number of domestic nameplates will fall by more than 3 million.
- This loss of domestic nameplates in the U.S. will not be distributed equally between cars and light trucks. The population of domestic light trucks will increase an estimated 4 million during these four years; while that of domestic passenger cars will plunge 7 million.
- Domestic nameplate light vehicles will decline significantly in total light vehicle share between 2018 and 2022.
- As domestic nameplates fall in share and number, foreign nameplate cars and light trucks will rapidly expand their population and share of light vehicles in the U.S. between 2018 and 2022.
- These changes in the domestic and foreign nameplate light vehicle mix will have a profound impact on foreign nameplate aftermarket product growth in the U.S.
- Lang Marketing projects that foreign nameplates will generate all light vehicle aftermarket product growth between 2018 and 2022.