Lang Aftermarket iReport: Annual miles per vehicle decline In 2019

“Annual mileage of the average light vehicle has declined during 2019. Lang Marketing estimates that the typical car and light truck in the U.S. will be driven approximately 1.0% fewer miles during 2019 than last year.

“This continues a trend of reduced annual miles per vehicle since 2016. During that time, the number of vehicles in operation (VIO) has increased at a faster annual pace than total car and light truck miles driven. As a result, the average car and light truck in the U.S. has recorded nearly 700 fewer miles on its odometer over the past three years.”

— Jim Lang, publisher, Lang Aftermarket iReport

VIO Growth Faster Than Total Mileage Growth

Lang Marketing projects that the total number of light vehicles in operation (VIO) will increase by approximately 2.1% during 2019. As the same time, total miles driven by cars and light trucks will climb at a slower pace.

The average car and light truck on the road during 2019 will be driven an estimated 1.0% fewer miles than in 2018 and nearly 4.0% less than during 2016.

Three-Year Average Mileage Downward Trend

This follows a trend of lower annual miles per average light vehicle on U.S. roads. Over the last three years (2017 through 2019), the number of vehicles increased just over 2% per year.

This means that the average car and light truck in the U.S. declined an estimated 4% in annual miles during 2017 through 2019. This resulted in a total “loss” of 0.2 trillion light vehicle miles during these three years.

Aftermarket Impact of Fewer Annual Miles

Generally, fewer miles travelled by the average car and light truck would seem to be negative for aftermarket product volume.

However, while the number of miles travelled by the average vehicle has declined over the past three years, the average age of vehicles has increased significantly.

Since older vehicles generally use more aftermarket products per mile travelled than newer cars and light trucks, the decline in total annual miles by the average vehicle has been offset by the increasing age of vehicles in terms of their aftermarket product use.

Higher Vehicle Age Offsets Lower Annual Miles Per Vehicle

Since 2016, the average age of vehicles has increased steadily and the number of vehicles over 15 years of age has soared.

Vehicle age growth has been concentrated among domestic nameplates. This has enabled domestic nameplate cars and light trucks to stave off a dramatic decline in aftermarket product volume that would otherwise be caused by their shrinking population.

Continuing Average Annual Mileage Trend

Lang Marketing expects the number of miles travelled by the average vehicle will continue to decline for the next several years, as the total mileage growth of all cars and light trucks fails to keep pace with the expanding number of vehicles in operation.

Increasing Vehicle Age Blunts Average Mileage Decline

Lang Marketing projects that the number of older vehicles in the U.S., particularly those 15 years and older, will keep increasing, something that will more than offset the declining number of miles driven by the average car and light truck in the U.S. and help to keep increasing light vehicle aftermarket product use.

Six Major Takeaways

• Lang Marketing projects that the light vehicle VIO will increase by approximately 2.1% during 2019, twice the annual growth rate of total miles driven by cars and light trucks on U.S. roads.
• The average light vehicle in the U.S. will be driven an estimated 1.0% fewer miles during 2019 than last year.
• Over the past three years (2017 through 2019), the number of miles driven by the average vehicle has declined a total of nearly 4.0%.
• The average light vehicle in the U.S. travelled nearly 400 fewer miles during 2019 than in 2016 and recorded a total of approximately 700 fewer miles on its odometer over the past three years.
• The declining annual miles travelled by the average vehicle have been offset, in terms of aftermarket product use, by the increasing age of the average vehicle since aftermarket product use per mile generally increases with vehicle age.
• Lang Marketing expects that the annual miles travelled by the average car and light truck in the U.S. will continue to decline for the next few years.

Copyright 2019 by Lang Marketing Resources, Inc.

NOTE: Special thanks to publisher Jim Lang for granting us permission to publish the Lang Aftermarket iReport.