Lang Aftermarket iReport: 8 million fewer domestic cars by 2022

“As the number of light vehicles on U.S. roads climbed an estimated 25 million between 2014 and 2019, fewer than 2 million domestic nameplates were added to the vehicle count. The population of domestic nameplates with continue to struggle: Lang Marketing predicts that nearly 3 million domestic vehicles will disappear during 2020 through 2022.

“The loss of domestic nameplates will not be distributed equally among cars and light trucks. All of the domestic nameplate reduction will be suffered by passenger cars. This will have a significant negative impact on aftermarket product use by domestic nameplates and boost the aftermarket product volume and share of foreign nameplate cars and light trucks in the U.S.”

— Jim Lang, publisher, Lang Aftermarket iReport

Changing Light Vehicle Mix

Lang Marketing estimates that the number of vehicles in operation (VIO) in the U.S. will be nearly flat during 2020 through 2022. Nevertheless, significant changes will take place in the mix of foreign and domestic nameplates.

Fewer Domestic Nameplate Cars

While the number of vehicles in operation (VIO) across the U.S. will not grow significantly between 2020 and 2022, the domestic nameplate car population will plunge.

Lang Marketing’s VIO projections are based on domestic cars constituting a growing share of vehicle scrappage and their declining new sales volume during 2020 through 2022.

Domestic Nameplate Light Trucks

Domestic nameplate new light truck sales will remain strong, given the overall volume of the new vehicle market. However, the domestic light truck population increase will be more than offset by the plunging domestic nameplate car count across the U.S.

Diminishing Domestic Nameplate Share of VIO

Domestic nameplate light vehicle VIO share will fall during 2020 through 2022, from an estimated 52% to less than 49%. This is a dramatic decline from their dominant VIO position of 58% as recently as 2014.

Domestic Nameplate Car and Light Truck Mix

Light trucks will capture a growing share of domestic nameplates during 2020 through 2022, climbing from 70% to more than 73% of the domestic nameplate VIO.

Domestic nameplate light truck presence will hold relatively steady at approximately 34% of light vehicles in operation during 2020 through 2022. Domestic nameplate share of cars will plunge from 16% to less than 14%.

Foreign Nameplate VIO Surge

As domestic nameplates decline in VIO share, foreign nameplates will rapidly expand their light vehicle population during 2020 through 2022.

Lang Marketing projects foreign nameplates will constitute over 51% of all cars and light trucks on U.S. roads by 2022, up from only 42% in 2014.

Aftermarket Impact

This dramatic shift in the domestic and foreign nameplate car and light truck VIO mix has significant implications for aftermarket product use.

The rapidly changing mix of light vehicles will boost foreign nameplate aftermarket product growth in the U.S., which Lang Marketing projects will climb during 2020 through 2022 at an average annual rate more than ten times the pace of domestic nameplate aftermarket product expansion.

Six Major Takeaways

• While the total car and light truck population will remain relatively flat during 2020 through 2022, the domestic nameplate count will fall by nearly 3 million.
• The net loss of domestic nameplates on U.S. roads will not be distributed equally among cars and light trucks. Domestic light trucks will increase by an estimated 5 million during these three-years, while domestic passenger cars will plunge nearly 8 million during 2020 through 2022.
• Domestic nameplate light vehicles will decline in VIO share during 2020 through 2022, falling from 51% to 49%.
• As domestic nameplates diminish, foreign nameplate cars and light trucks will rapidly expand their light vehicle VIO share across the U.S.
• Rapid changes in the domestic and foreign nameplate light vehicle mix on U.S. roads will have a profound impact on aftermarket product volume by nameplate segment during these three years.
• Lang Marketing projects that foreign nameplate aftermarket product use during 2020 through 2022 will increase at an average annual rate more than ten times the pace of domestic nameplate aftermarket product growth.

Copyright 2020 by Lang Marketing Resources, Inc.

NOTE: Special thanks to publisher Jim Lang for granting us permission to publish the Lang Aftermarket iReport.