Report: Foreign nameplates surge to 55% of new U.S. vehicle market

“Foreign nameplate cars and light trucks averaged 44% of new vehicle sales in the U.S. between 2001 and 2010. Over the next eight years (2011 to 2018), foreign nameplates surged to 55% of the new vehicle market.

“This changing nameplate mix of new vehicle sales means that over 420 billion miles driven on U.S. roads will shift from domestic to foreign nameplates during 2019 and 2020. In addition, it will prompt a shift in the aftermarket parts and labor volume from domestic to foreign nameplates.”

– Jim Lang, publisher, Lang Aftermarket iReport

More Foreign Nameplates and High Mileage

Annual use (mileage) of cars and light trucks in the U.S. is highest during the first eight years of operation.

Vehicles 3 years and younger average more than 14,200 annual miles, with cars and light trucks 4 to 6 years old averaging just over 12,200 miles per year. Annual mileage drops to an average of 10,800 among vehicles 7 to 8 years old.

Cars and light trucks 9 through 12 years of age average 9,200 miles per year, with annual mileage falling sharply among light vehicles topping 12 years of age.

Gain in Foreign Nameplates Share

Foreign nameplates have averaged 55% of new car and light truck volume over the last eight years. As a result, foreign nameplates will replace an estimated 14 million domestic cars and light trucks among vehicles 8 years and younger on U.S. roads during 2019 (compared to 2009). Cars and light trucks in this age group record significantly higher than average annual mileage.

Lang Marketing estimates more than 420 billion miles on U.S. roads will shift from domestic to foreign nameplate cars and light trucks during 2019 and 2020 compared to what would have been the mileage mix among vehicles had foreign nameplates not recorded their strong surge in new vehicle sales share since 2011.

This massive annual mileage shift from domestic to foreign nameplates is a result of the dramatic change in the nameplate mix of new vehicle sales and its impact on vehicles in operation (VIO).

Mileage Drives Foreign Aftermarket Growth

The expanding foreign nameplate share of the total VIO on U.S. roads is causing a rapid gain in foreign nameplate annual miles, which, in turn, boosts foreign nameplate aftermarket product growth.

Vehicle Sweet-Spot Changes

Just 10 years ago, foreign nameplates represented less than 37% of vehicles in the so-called repair-age sweet-spot (vehicles 6 to 10 years of age).

This situation has changed dramatically, as a result of the rapid expansion of foreign nameplate new vehicle sales in recent years.

Foreign nameplates will account for approximately 55% of the repair-age sweet-spot vehicle population during 2019 and 2020, half-again stronger than their sweet-spot share during 2009.

Mileage Shift in the Repair-Age Sweet-Spot

Lang Marketing estimates foreign nameplates in the repair-age sweet-spot (6 to 10 years old) will account for approximately 55% more miles during 2019 and 2020 than they did 10 years earlier.

This will supercharge foreign nameplate aftermarket product growth and push foreign nameplates to a majority of car and light truck aftermarket volume by 2020.

Six Major Takeaways

• Annual mileage varies dramatically by vehicle age, with cars and light trucks 3 years and under averaging 75% more annual miles than vehicles topping 12 years of age.
• An estimated 420 billion miles on U.S. roads will shift from domestic to foreign nameplates during 2019 and 2020 compared to what would have been the vehicle mileage mix had foreign nameplates not recorded their strong surge in the new vehicle market since 2011.
• Growth of foreign nameplates in new vehicle sales and the expanding foreign nameplate share of vehicles on U.S. roads are shaping a rapid increase of foreign nameplate aftermarket product share and volume.
• Mileage among vehicles in the so-called repair-age sweet-spot (6 to 10 years old) will shift dramatically from domestic to foreign nameplates, with foreign nameplates accounting for approximately 50% more annual miles in that age group during 2019 and 2020 compared to 10 years earlier.
• Lang Marketing projects that the mileage shift on U.S. roads will supercharge foreign nameplate aftermarket product volume, generating virtually all aftermarket product growth during 2019 and 2020.
• The dramatic mileage shift from domestic to foreign nameplates will boost foreign nameplates to a majority of aftermarket product volume by 2020.

Copyright 2019 by Lang Marketing Resources, Inc.

NOTE: Special thanks to publisher Jim Lang for granting us permission to publish the Lang Aftermarket iReport.