Edmunds: New vehicle sales expected to lift in January
Analysts predict a SAAR of 17.2 million in January, but caution this strong start isn't an accurate barometer for the rest of the year.
SANTA MONICA, Calif., Jan. 24, 2018 /PRNewswire/ — Edmunds forecasts that 1,169,804 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in January for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.2 million. This reflects a 28.1 percent decrease in sales from December 2018, but a 1.3 percent increase from January 2018.
“January’s sales strength shows car shoppers are still feeling optimistic, even in the midst of the government shutdown and talk of a slowing economy,” said Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds’ manager of industry analysis. “But despite this positive start, January is such a slow sales month that it doesn’t carry much weight when it comes to predicting the health of the auto market for the full year.”
Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.9 million vehicles in January 2019, with fleet transactions accounting for 19.7 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.1 million used vehicles will be sold in January 2019, for a SAAR of 39.2 million (compared to 2.7 million — or a SAAR of 39.7 million — in December).
|
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER |
|||||
|
Sales |
January 2019 |
January |
December |
Change from |
Change from |
|
GM* |
193,348 |
198,548 |
293,680 |
-2.6% |
-34.2% |
|
Ford |
178,904 |
160,411 |
219,632 |
11.5% |
-18.5% |
|
Toyota |
162,960 |
167,052 |
220,908 |
-2.4% |
-26.2% |
|
Fiat Chrysler |
136,690 |
132,803 |
196,520 |
2.9% |
-30.4% |
|
Honda |
111,135 |
104,542 |
155,115 |
6.3% |
-28.4% |
|
Nissan |
104,737 |
123,538 |
148,720 |
-15.2% |
-29.6% |
|
Hyundai/Kia |
82,203 |
76,870 |
113,149 |
6.9% |
-27.4% |
|
VW/Audi |
36,132 |
39,255 |
54,812 |
-8.0% |
-34.1% |
|
Tesla |
17,167 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
|
Industry |
1,169,804 |
1,155,313 |
1,627,597 |
1.3% |
-28.1% |
|
*GM sales totals for December 2018 are estimated |
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|
**NOTE: January 2019 had 25 selling days, January 2018 had 25 and December 2018 had 26. |
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MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER |
|||||
|
Market |
January 2019 |
January |
December |
Change from |
Change from |
|
GM |
16.5% |
17.2% |
18.0% |
-0.7% |
-1.5% |
|
Ford |
15.3% |
13.9% |
13.5% |
1.4% |
1.8% |
|
Toyota |
13.9% |
14.5% |
13.6% |
-0.5% |
0.4% |
|
Fiat Chrysler |
11.7% |
11.5% |
12.1% |
0.2% |
-0.4% |
|
Honda |
9.5% |
9.0% |
9.5% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
|
Nissan |
9.0% |
10.7% |
9.1% |
-1.7% |
-0.2% |
|
Hyundai/Kia |
7.0% |
6.7% |
7.0% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
|
VW/Audi |
3.1% |
3.4% |
3.4% |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
Tesla |
1.5% |
– |
– |
– |
– |
More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.
About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America’s best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in Detroit, Michigan. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
