Does Past Performance Indicate Future Results?

The Numbers Say ... Not Always

Posted 5/4/2009
By Jon E. Vance

Investment ads contain the following disclaimer in small print: "Past performance is not an indication of future results." While this is often the case in the financial community, the aftermarket service and repair industry follows an annual pattern that is defined in the first quarter of the year. 2009 is shaping up differently.

Average monthly repair order (RO) counts consistently take a dive in February. For the past three years, the dip was between 7 percent and 9 percent. Then there was a rebound in March. Not in 2009; quite the opposite.

The January to February move was up, not down. Average RO counts skyrocketed 9.3 percent to 140. March RO counts slipped slightly to 138.

This strong 2009 start is encouraging. 2006, 2007 and 2008 peaked and dropped. 2009 is the opposite. This may indicate an upswing without the drop. With continued closings of dealer service bays, more vehicles will be competing for appointments in independent service and repair shops.

Designed to help today's shop owners and managers easily access the core data necessary to assess shop volume, sales and maximize profits, ShopMeter can be accessed online through the ASA Web site, www.ASAshop.org, in the Members Only section. This product is currently free to all ASA regular members in good standing. (Simply use your six-digit member number, located on your AutoInc. label, to access the site.)

Stat Corner is written by Jon E. Vance, PMP, project manager with Mitchell 1. Mitchell 1 is a longtime associate member of ASA as well as a sponsored benefit provider. These charts and more KPI information is available free on ShopMeter, an ASA benefit powered by Mitchell 1.